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1-Page Summary of The Next 100 Years
Welcome to “the American Age”
In 1900, Europeans believed that they would always dominate the world. However, by 1920, this was no longer true because of World War I. Empires disappeared and Germany fell into ruin along with Communism taking over Russia. By 1940 however, Germany had recovered and began a war that was devastating to Europe. In 1960 however, the nation of Germany had lost its power in the region due to an alliance between America and Soviet Union which led to nuclear threats from both sides for dominance in the area. Jumping ahead 20 years after 1970 showed how China allied itself with America as a way to combat Soviet aggression while also having capitalism spread across its country without calling it communism anymore at all like before. Jump ahead another 10 years again shows us 9/11 when Islamic extremists attacked America which then changed everything yet again about American-Islamic relations around the world today.
In 1900, you would not have been able to predict the details of any of these world-changing events. However, if you had examined the situation from a geopolitical perspective, you would have been able to predict major trends. Geopolitical forecasting makes two assumptions: first, people gather into social groups larger than families; and second, politics emerge out of this social organization. People feel loyal to these organizations and are motivated by national identity—which includes history—and that shapes a nation’s character and its grand strategy.
There are two main understandings of how economics and demographics play a role in shaping the future. The first is that geography determines economic resources, such as natural resources, location (landlocked countries behave differently from those with ports), and other factors like mountains or minerals. It also includes what you can’t control, such as your neighbors’ beliefs or whether there’s another country nearby that might be competing with you for land or power. If you take these factors into account when looking at trends related to technology, it will allow you to make solid predictions about the future. These constraints limit countries’ options so they don’t have complete free will over their actions; instead they must choose from limited options. Only great leaders can come up with new ideas that others haven’t thought of before because they’re able to see things in ways no one else does; chess grandmasters are an example of this ability on a small scale.
The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was a historic event that has reshaped our world. The United States is now the most powerful nation on earth, with unmatched military and technological might. It benefits from its location as well as a major shift in shipping patterns, which have shifted from Europe to Asia over the past 50 years. Geopolitically speaking, it dominates both oceans’ shipping lanes and can track every ship at any time thanks to its advanced technology.
The “American Age” began after the fall of the Soviet Union. It took on its current tone when Al Qaeda’s terrorism became a threat to America in 2001, and it was further solidified by the terrorist attacks on 9/11. Some people predict that there will be a 100-year war between Islam and Western civilization, but it will be much shorter than that. In order for Al Qaeda to gain geopolitical power over America, they would have had to destabilize our nation and spark a new radical Islamic state; however, Al Qaeda did not do this because their strategy backfired. The U.S., instead of being threatened by this movement, has only strengthened itself as a result of these events because they were able to survive without having an Islamic regime take control over them. Although Al Qaeda’s region is unstable and their movement is incoherent at times, they still managed to ignite America’s surge into its next stage of grand strategy.
