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The rate of technological progress is about to shift into warp speed.
The world is changing rapidly. Technology like flying cars, lab-grown steaks and robot surgeons are becoming a reality. Ray Kurzweil predicts that the next century will see as much technological change as the previous 20,000 years—from agriculture to the internet era.
Technology used to evolve slowly. However, in the 20th century, it changed rapidly and had a huge impact on society. Digital technology evolves at an exponential rate: It doubles its capacity every 18 months while lowering costs. This pattern has held true for more than 40 years now. The result is that computers double their power every year and a half while staying the same price.
Ray Kurzweil, author of The Singularity Is Near, noted that once any technology becomes digital, it grows exponentially. AI, robotics, nanotechnology, virtual reality and blockchain currencies are all growing at an exponential rate.
The phenomenon of “convergence” further speeds up this exponential scale of change.
Technology is growing at an exponential rate. The convergence of different technologies makes this growth happen even faster. For example, Uber wants to introduce flying cars by 2023 and that’s possible because of the convergence of several technologies such as machine learning, material science and 3D printing in order to create new engines for vehicles. They also need batteries that are better than what we have now which will make it easier for us to fly around in the future.
Convergence produces “secondary forces” that stimulate greater innovation.
The rate of progress today is faster than ever before. This creates “shock waves” that bring multiple benefits, including time savings and more free time. Free time allows people to innovate in ways they couldn’t otherwise do when they’re too busy doing the necessary things to survive.
Innovation takes money. It’s easier to get that money now than ever before, because of the convergence between digital technology and traditional fundraising methods. Crowdfunding is one example of a new kind of funding method that allows innovators or entrepreneurs to seek investment from billions of people online.
Technology is advancing rapidly, and things that were once expensive are becoming cheaper. For example, data analysis was very expensive in the past; now it’s inexpensive. Things like energy, transportation, communication and labor have all gotten much cheaper as well.
In the past, genius was harder to find. Many of the most famous individuals throughout history were men from certain classes or cultures and they may have been overlooked due to their gender. However, with the rise of social media networks like Facebook and Twitter, it is easier than ever for people to share what they do best with a larger audience. This allows more people with great ideas to be recognized by others who can help them succeed.
The internet makes it easier to share ideas and learn from others. This is called the network effect, which has accelerated innovation throughout history. For example, cities have always been hothouses for progress because people can easily share ideas with each other. Now, the internet turns Earth into a giant virtual city that accelerates progress even more rapidly than before.
A new business model is one that has never been used before. Some examples of a new business model are crowdfunding, flexible staffing, and giving your product away for free in order to collect data about customers. With these models, it’s much easier to start a company because you don’t have to spend as much time developing the idea into something viable.