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1-Page Summary of Success and Luck

Overview

Steve Jobs was a very talented person. He excelled in the business world and achieved things beyond most people’s wildest dreams. However, he also benefited from luck as well as his own hard work. For example, he was born in a rich country with access to computers and other gadgets.

The following are key points to consider when examining the role of luck in our lives. You’ll learn that luck doesn’t just happen and that it also seems to favor certain people repeatedly until they become wealthy or famous athletes—but no one is entirely self-made.

In this speech, you’ll learn about the role of luck in success and how we can be lucky. You’ll also learn how public services create a foundation for successful countries and individuals.

Big Idea #1: In hindsight, everything seems obvious – but nothing is quite so predictable, especially when it comes to success.

If you’ve ever been hit by a car while biking, you know that there’s no way to foresee the fact that people will drive into your path without looking.

However, hindsight can be misleading. If you re-examine the bike accident in your mind, it will seem predictable. This phenomenon is called hindsight bias, or assuming that an event was predictable after the fact when it wasn’t at all. This way of thinking also means that we may accept inferences as facts without any proof. For example, Paul Lazarsfeld, a sociologist from the 1940s, told people that rural people were better suited for military service than city dwellers were based on previous studies and surveys he had conducted.

The participants in the study agreed with this conclusion. However, a previous study had actually led to the opposite conclusion – Lazarsfeld deliberately reported false results. The participants considered his findings easy to accept because of their predisposition to see any given outcome as logical or predictable.

Furthermore, the hindsight bias is applicable in many situations. For instance, it can help us understand why famous people are successful and how we can use their success to our advantage.

You might think that the Mona Lisa is famous because of what it looks like. But, in reality, its fame started after a thief stole it from the Louvre in Paris and brought it back to Italy. The thief was celebrated for “bringing” the painting home. Meanwhile, he had only been trying to get rid of it!

The point is, as humans we tend to explain away history and trends as predictable. This is true for our understanding of fame, but also for any reports or information that we come across.

Big Idea #2: We abide by the marketplace cliché that “winner takes all;” but what kind of thinking does this represent?

When big retail chains move in, small local shops are forced to close because they can’t compete. This is how the market works today; it’s a globalized economy and smaller businesses must compete globally.

Of course, the Internet has only exacerbated this. People can find anything online and have it shipped to them. As a result, big businesses prosper while smaller local businesses struggle to make ends meet.

It’s the same for artists. There seems to be no limit to how much money they can make – just think of Adele or Taylor Swift.

When you look at it closely, there really isn’t a big difference between the very successful and their competitors. It’s not fair that they are so much more successful than others who earn less money.

Classical music soloists and principal dancers tend to be better paid than the rest of the orchestra or corps de ballet. However, this wage gap is getting wider and wider. This may be because we have been indoctrinated by modern economic thinking that markets reward those who are the most talented or efficient. But perhaps plain good luck has more to do with their success than these factors alone would suggest.