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1-Page Summary of Adaptive Markets
Overview
We’ve been using a financial system for decades that doesn’t account for human flaws, which leads to the 2008 financial crisis. The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis provides an evolutionary view of markets by incorporating the human element into it. We’re all affected by these markets whether we invest or not because they affect everyday businesses and jobs. So it’s important to have at least a basic understanding of how things work – and this article will provide you with those key points.
The author discusses the current way of doing things in the stock market and how it can be improved. There is no reason why such a powerful system has to be stuck in an old way of doing things; we need to think big and put this financial system to work for everyone’s benefit!
Here are some key points: mortgage debt caused the worldwide crisis, gambling addiction teaches us about investing, and the market could be used to cure cancer.
Big Idea #1: The Efficient Market Hypothesis is widely accepted as how the market works.
If you’ve taken an Economics 101 class, you may have heard of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). This theory suggests that stock prices reflect a company’s value.
In the past few years, it’s become widely accepted that the EMH (Efficient Market Hypothesis) isn’t perfect. However, academics and leading experts in investment still regard it as the best theory out there.
The efficient market hypothesis is a theory that says the value of a company’s shares will drop after an unfortunate event. For example, Morton Thiokol had problems with its products in the 1980s, so its stock price dropped after the Challenger disaster.
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) works by combining the wisdom and knowledge of all investors. It’s generally agreed upon that this collective wisdom is a reflection of a company’s value.
Now, given the EMH’s accuracy, it is unlikely that anyone can beat the market. And since you cannot beat the market, you should invest in low-risk index funds or mutual funds that contain a collection of stocks with no big changes over time.
If you invest in the stock market, it is best to stick with index funds. Index funds are a type of mutual fund that tracks an entire market (such as the S&P 500). They’re designed to be low-cost and passive investments. The first index fund was created by John Bogle in 1976 at Vanguard.
Since then, the stock market has generated trillions of dollars for investors.
Big Idea #2: The Adaptive Market Hypothesis is a theory that takes into account human behavior in financial markets.
You might be wondering why the Efficient Market Hypothesis is so accurate and simple, yet we still have huge financial crises that cause assets to become grossly misvalued.
The stock market is based on human nature and the fact that people in control are prone to making irrational decisions. If a company’s value takes a dip, traders will sell their shares because they’re worried about losing too much money. This is called behavioral economics.
Therefore, we need a new way of looking at the market that takes into account both the logical rules of efficient markets and the illogical rules of human nature. The Adaptive Market Hypothesis does this by considering everything from an evolutionary standpoint. For example, John Bogle’s decision to add market cap weighted indexes to his Vanguard Index Trust was because he saw increased competition as a reason for adding more passive management features to his fund.
Mutual funds that use Bogle’s new feature need less oversight, which makes them more attractive to investors. Therefore, the fact that most mutual funds have this feature is not surprising because it results from competition and innovation in an efficient market.