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1-Page Summary of Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick
Most firms still fail at articulating strategy beyond what they’ve done in the past.
People tend to be egocentric and not think outside the box. They also have a tendency to confirm their own opinions, which can lead them to avoid taking risks. In addition, most CEOs are risk-averse and tend to distribute resources equally across business lines as opposed to focusing on one area that needs improvement.
Business unit leaders develop slide decks to wear down corporate budget resistance and gain approval for their plans. They predict that if the firm invests in losses this year and next, then they’ll see rocket-ship-rising gains.
Based on millions of years of human evolution, natural biases favor fast action over the deep thought and consideration that strategic planning needs.
There are dozens of biases that affect how people think. This leads to low goals and a focus on personal gain rather than the organization’s success. Management is evaluated based on these flawed metrics, so they don’t have any incentive to make big bets for the company.
Business leaders are often so focused on protecting their business lines that they miss the bigger picture. For example, Kodak turned down opportunities to enter the digital camera market because it was afraid of losing its film business. It didn’t realize that digital cameras would eventually destroy the film market entirely. To avoid this type of thinking, we need to listen to outside ideas and pursue them relentlessly.
Economic profit – what you have left after subtracting the total cost of capital – offers a good measure of success that forces you to look outward.
We can see a power curve when we plot the economic profit of large firms. The left (bottom) quarter has a short, steep, negative tail; the middle two quarters are flat; and the right (top) quarter shows a short, steep positive line.
Most companies don’t make a lot of money. After all expenses, there’s very little profit left over for the company to keep. This is known as “economic profit”. The only way to get this economic profit is by having investors invest money in your company so you can use it to create products and services that people want.
Some companies are able to make more profit than others. The top 25% of those companies turn an average $1.4 billion each year, and investors love them regardless of their industry or location. This means that every company in the world is a potential competitor, so you have to be on your toes at all times when it comes to making money.
Getting to the upper quartile in economic profits requires bold action, not just optimistic forecasts.
Companies plan for the future by looking at where they’re going. However, these plans often fail because they don’t look far enough into the future to see what’s coming. For example, fiber optic cable was laid during the first internet boom and personal computers were manufactured when consumers started buying them in bulk. If companies had looked farther ahead at how much unused fiber capacity already existed or how many other firms were rushing into PC manufacturing, those decisions may have been different.
Businesses often think they’re better than their competitors or have a formula for success like Apple. They ignore market conditions and settle on one idea quickly, usually an optimistic one that hasn’t been thoroughly tested. Most businesses prefer small steps toward growth with even budgets across projects and business lines.
Hockey stick growth happens in companies that identify their core competencies and then invest in those areas. For example, PCC invested heavily in aerospace and defense from 2000 to 2004. By doing so, they were able to increase their revenue substantially compared with other mid-range firms over the same period of time.