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A Test Case for Post-Modern War
In March 2014, Vladimir Putin announced that Russian special forces had taken over Crimea from Ukraine. This was a major provocation and it shook the peace in Europe. It also sparked fears that Russia might target Estonia or other former Soviet satellites next. Finland and Sweden wondered whether they should join NATO to protect themselves from Russia’s aggression.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was flexing his military muscles in Crimea, but it also seemed like he was schooling the world on geopolitics. He had already stared down US President Barack Obama and proved himself to be a cunning leader who should be feared and respected.
Putin’s move to annex Crimea was surprising and took the world by surprise. However, it is unclear if he gained any advantage from this move. In retrospect, Putin’s decision seemed impulsive and rash rather than carefully planned out. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine can be used as a case study for waging war in today’s society because of its combination of covert and overt actions, as well as manipulation of public opinion on both sides. Another unique aspect is how the West responded with targeted sanctions instead of broad punishments that increase suffering among the masses.
Cold War Roots
For decades, military strategy was defined by the Cold War. During this time, there were two superpowers: enemies with nuclear arsenals capable of destroying each other many times over. The most crucial concept during the Cold War was crisis management-the notion that conflicts could be contained before they led to the destruction of humanity. In the case of the Cuban Missile Crisis, for example, it became clear how valuable it is to give an enemy a way out without losing face.
The end of the Cold War set up Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With a population of 45 million, Ukraine is surrounded by Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and Moldova. The borders have shifted many times in the past century with relations between Moscow and Kiev being influenced by Stalin’s Great Famine from 1932-33 that killed millions. During World War II there were 8 million casualties in Ukraine mostly civilians. In 1991 it became independent but corruption plagued its post-Soviet years until Viktor Yanukovych who would later become prime minister then president was involved in some shady dealings.
As time passed, many Ukrainians wanted to join the European Union. Putin did not support this move because he preferred a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union and wanted to establish a Eurasian Customs Union that could rival other superpowers like China, United States and EU. Ukraine was an important prize for Russia as it would serve as an important sign of its power. While Putin valued Ukraine highly, Western countries were indifferent towards it when it fell into financial crisis in 2011.
In 2013, many in Ukraine saw Yanukovych as Putin’s puppet. In early 2014, protests against his regime led to his departure. With him gone, Putin had a difficult decision to make: Should he recognize the new government? He didn’t particularly like Yanukovych or want him back in power; however, he took the stance that it was an illegitimate coup because Yanukovych wasn’t removed democratically.
Russia has always wanted Crimea to be part of Russia. They have been talking about it in the past, and they will continue to do so whenever a government that is not friendly to them takes charge in Kiev. In March 2014, Putin announced that he had annexed Crimea. He sent his troops disguised as civilians into Crimea and denied having any involvement until he was caught red-handed with his pants down (or rather, without them).
